WORLD OIL PRICE SHOCKS IN MACROECONOMIC ASEAN +3 COUNTRIES: MEASUREMENT OF RISK MANAGEMENT AND DECISION-MAKING A LINEAR DYNAMIC PANEL APPROACH

The increase in oil prices the 1970s has had a quite significant impact over decades since rise inflation an on hyperinflation, recession, lowered productivity and economic growth. World Bank (2021) forecasts that will exceed US$44 per barrel 2021 US$50 2022, while several factors affect Bank's projections, including persistence of issues coming years. purpose this paper was to empirically assess ASEAN+3 framework can be applied linear dynamic panel data achieve goal is First Difference-Generalized Moment Method (FD-GMM) estimator method. This study used representing countries annual period 2011-2020. findings indicated that, period, increasing were associated with higher inflation, growth ASEAN+3. Another result related lower Lower decreased inflation. High creates high costs development social prosperity, therefore policymakers are expected adopt policies not only good for short term, but also long term establish long-term prosperity price stability. In addition, variety non-economic variables global market volatility should considered reduce potential risks.Keywords: shock, Production Growth, development, econometricsJEL Classifications: E31, E42, E63, F43, F62DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11249